⚾️ MLB 7/1: SM Daily Notes 🏟️
A daily report of everything you need to know for today's MLB slate
Hey everybody! There is a full slate of baseball on the schedule today and we are here to break it all down for you.
We will run through some players that you should focus on if you are playing fantasy, placing bets, or watching along.
Have a great Tuesday and enjoy tonight’s action!
Pitchers
Nick Pivetta (vs. PHI)
The 32-year-old righty comes into this road matchup with a 3.36 ERA on the season with a 1.03 WHIP. The Phillies have the third-highest strikeout rate in the NL over the last week (25%). Pivetta ranks in the top 3% of the league in pitching run value (17) and fastball run value (12). His four-seam fastball (31.3) and sweeper (35.1) rank highly in the league in K%.
Shane Baz (vs. ATH)
Baz comes into this home start off the back of one of his best performances of the season. He pitched eight innings of no run ball along with nine strikeouts. This was no fluke, he recently swapped out his slider for a new cutter with nine inches of vertical break and 3-4 inch movement to the glove side. Early results have been great, with the swinging-strike rate up and the xwOBAcon has dropped. The A’s have the 5th-most strikeouts vs. RHP.
Freddy Peralta (vs. NYM)
Peralta is coming into one of his favorite matchups today. In his career against the Mets, he is 3-0 with a 2.60 ERA in 17.1 IP. He had eight Ks in six IP his last start in Citi Field and has 20 overall vs. New York. Peralta has a 3.21 ERA this month and 32 SO in 28 IP. Only the Colorado Rockies have a higher SO % than the Mets over the last two weeks (24.6). Peralta is top five % of the league in off speed run value.
Matthew Boyd (vs. CLE)
Boyd is 6-0 at Wrigley Field this season with a 2.41 ERA and is averaging a strikeout per inning. The Guardians are hitting .193 over their last 12 games and have the worst OPS in the league in that same time. Wrigley has ranked in the top five of hardest parks to hit at over the last three seasons. Boyd should keep rolling in July after posting a 1.78 ERA in June.
Colton Gordon (vs. COL)
Gordon is finally getting a shot in the big leagues after four seasons in the minors and looks to be turning the tide after a rough start. He is coming off a June where he went 3-0 with a 2.14 ERA in 21 IP. The Rockies have struck out the most as a team this season (832) and the highest-rate over the last two weeks (29.7%). Colorado is second last in batting average vs. LHP (.215).
Batters
Jazz Chisholm (vs. TOR)
Chisholm is swinging a hot-bat coming into this series vs. the Blue Jays. He hit a home run last night, his fourth in seven games, and has a slugging percentage of .714 over that time. His OPS for the month of June was .992. Chisholm is top five % of the league in barrel % (16.7), while Kevin Gausman gives up barrels at almost a 10% rate.
Riley Greene (vs. WSH)
Greene has the third best OPS in the league over his last 12 games (1.255) and has a batting average over .400 for the time (.417). The Tigers’ outfielders has six home runs in his last 15 games and 12 hits in his last 29 ABs. Trevor Williams will throw his four-seam fastball the most and he has one of the worst average velocities on that pitch in the MLB (87.7). Greene is slugging .483 on four-seamers and has an xwOBA of .346.
Junior Caminero (vs. ATH)
Caminero arrives back in South Florida where he has been raking this season, and got back on track with a home run last night. Junior Caminero ranks tied-first for hits at home this season (59) and 5th in SLG (.605). His OPS at home is over a 300-point difference than on the road (.955 vs .622). He ranks first in the league in bat speed this season (78) and top 3% in max. exit velocity (116.5). Caminero will look to do damage off of Jeffrey Springs' four-seam and slider. They both have xSLG over .490 and Caminero has run values of 9 and 6 on those pitches, respectively.
Christian Yelich (vs. NYM)
The former MVP comes into this game on a seven-game hit streak with two multi-hit performances sprinkled in. He is facing Clay Holmes, who he has a career 1.714 OPS, in Citi Field where he has a .790 OPS. Yelich finished June hitting .333 with an OPS of .936. The Milwaukee outfielder has seen his xwOBA rise from .297 on June 1st to .390 on June 28th. Yelich is a much better hitter on the road this season, with his OPS at .908 vs. .674 at home.
Michael Busch (vs. CLE)
The Cubs’ first-baseman comes into this game slashing .300/.364/.520 over the last 15 games. He has an OPS of 1.002 in June, compared to when he finished May with a .720 OPS. He is facing a righty in Gavin Williams and Busch has smashed righties, recording a .968 SLG this season. Busch has an xSLG of .583 on fastballs, a pitch Williams throws 41.7% of the time and gets hit pretty hard with an average exit velocity of 93.7.
Tyler Freeman (vs. HOU)
Freeman has had a resurgent season with the Colorado Rockies after the Guardians sent him to Colorado in exchange for Nolan Jones. Early returns are favoring the Rockies and Freeman, he has hit .316 this season for the Rockies and hit just .209 last season in Cleveland. The most impressive part is that he hasn’t just turned into a “Coors Field merchant” and has actually hit better on the road (.806 OPS vs. .863 OPS). His xwOBA has climbed over 100 points in his last 100 PA (.263 all the way to .420).